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this was not political, it was not for this, this, and this reason, it was in fact trying to make sure the mesh economy was on solid base and that we could get some jobs back. >> we're about four minutes from the beginning of that q&a session. we are monitoring mr. bernanke's address, art. we'll bring you the session when it does begin. >>> bond traders also keeping a very close eye on mr. bernanke and his remarks and the upcoming q&a that we'll bring you. rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. reactions? >> i've been phoning around. there is a very common thread especially among a lot of the futures traders. they keyed if on one sentence of ben bernanke. we'll show it on the screen. we expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens. and this is what traders were not happy about. i talked to two or three traders that said they're going to be moving now almost exclusively in trading non-financials, commodities, precious metals, and his opinion -- things that the fed can't print. they also think that ultimately
to fix the u.s. economy. waiting on spain, the ecb expected to hold steady on rates. country's president tells cnbc that europe's policymakers must remain focused. >> if we get bogged down into what was meant by the june agreements and waste time on this kind of discussions, then it's much less likely that a coherent system will emerge. >> madrid continues to put faith in the hands of private investors while finance minister heads to london to raise funds for the country's bad bank. and india's crucial services sector grows at its fastest rate in seven months, while the government gets set to take another swing at boosting it through foreign investments. thanks very much for joining me. anyone that's missing ross, he'll be back in tomorrow. but for now, you're all mine. . plenty to come on the next couple hours of the show. lots of guests to help us figure out what's going on. we'll get a view from sydney about cautious shoppers. borrowing costs are expected to fall. we'll bring you those results from madrid. and we'll head out to malaysia for an exclusive interview with the country's pr
on wall street. disappointing news on the broadest measure of the size and strength of the economy in america. the financial reading of the gross domestic product shows that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1 1/3 percent for the first quarter, down from 1.7%. much of the change due from poor farm production in the midwest because of a severe drought. dow industrials broke a four day losing streak on thursday meanwhile with the best day in two weeks. after fresh concerns about europe eased. the markets, however, were down on friday. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level in seven months in september. the conference board says its index rose more than 10% from august. indicator was closely watched because consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the u.s. economy. >>> two important pieces of date to for the housing market for out. sales of new homes in august for down slightly from july. the median price of a home rose by a record amount p 11%. pending home sales slightly down in month of august, at least in part due to an inventory mortgage. not enough homes availab
are a little worse than the second. the economy was revised down in the second. it's implausible that you could be running at a 5% gdp growth rate, which is what these numbers are implying. >> the nonfarm payroll number was lousy. you're right about that. the nonfarm payroll and private sector numbers, 114,000 and 104,000 were lousy so i agree with that point. i want to challenge you on one other point, okay? the isms for manufacturing and services both outperformed. now they're walking back to the mid 50s. that shows better growth. maybe even 3% growth. car sales at 15 million. home prices are rising and i just want to say it is possible, jack, you are smarter than i am, you know more about business than i, but it's possible that the data are showing that the month of september was a stronger month than we thought. i'm not -- these jobs numbers may or may not be accurate or may or not be revised but other thing, are coming in that actually look like we bumped up a little bit. >> you were around in '83. in '83 we had 5% gdp growth. that's the last year we had a number like this. for the life of
, and the europeans that are going to continue inject adrenaline into economies. >> sandy, is there any reason to believe all of this buying of equities is just what michael said, the central banks of the world and really not based on fundamenta fundamentals, or is this old news at this point that we're going see a contraction in third quarter earnings as these numbers come out in the next couple weeks? >> i don't even know that people are buying equity. we've had about $8 billion that have come out of equities in the last two weeks and $6.3 billion that thhave come out of bonds. the stocks continue to work higher on that. you want to be positioned well. you want to buy good companies, good growth companies at reasonable prices and stick with that over the long term. >> you make a great point, sandy. we are, in fact, seeing outflows consistently. what's moving this market? >> i think it has to do with the election and things like that. look at last five years. i was just looking at numbers ending september over the five years. the s&p's done 1% annualized. bonds are up almost 5.8% annualized.
influential figures in the nation on the economy join us here on cnbc. >> we've got representative and hopeful ron paul with us. texas, from texas. he is of course outspoken about the federal reserve policies. robert reich is here with us tonight. also with us grover norquist. the man behind the no new taxes pledge so many republicans made. and bob lutz a former top auto executive. the auto bailout expected to be a big topic tonight. and we've got president of the aflcio. unions of course a major constituency. and roger altman. as you can see the lineup card is full. going to be great. >> absolutely. meantime our chief washington correspondent john harwood has made the trip to denver. what are you watching first tonight? >> what i'm watching for is how mitt romney takes advantage of this huge opportunity that he's got with tens of millions of americans watching these two side by side. he's behind in the polls, but not by an overwhelming margin. three points in our nbc/wall street journal poll. i talked to devine who was the campaign strategist for al gore. when gore lost the election, in the d
the rest of the economy has started to feel the effect from the sluggish manufacturing sector. if you look at the breakdown of the services pmi, the construction services sub index -- meanwhile, new orders were dragged lower by demand weakness for transportation. over in australia, a survey showed an even grimmer picture as its services index dipped to 41.9 in september. india reports its all important services pmi tomorrow, while hsbc is out next monday. that's all from me. >> thank you very much. >>> coming up on today's show, we head to paris to find out more, the attempts to offload his unit. then to hong kong where we examine the political transition in china plagued by scandals and disappearances. we get an expert view on the new leadership change. >>> and next, washington and its debate tonight as romney and obama finally square off. we'll have a preview of what to expect and what's at stake with our very own democrat-republican panel. >>> and real estate is on the rise. we head to new york with founder barbara corcoran. mariano rajoy has denied reports that spain will request a bai
. forecasters who were polled by dow jones, they say the economy likely added 118,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate according to the dow jones poll is seen holding steady at 8.1%. reuters consensus is calling for 113,000 jobs and the unemployment rate of 8.2%. meanwhile ap using 113,000 jobs and a jobless rate of 8.2%. that would make that 111,000 for the ap. well have complete coverage of today's reports. we have a trio of experts who are standing by to join us in just a few minutes. michel michelle girard. and in the next hour, jared bernstein and tony fratto. our guest host this morning is fx concepts chairman john taylor. after we hear the number at 8:30 eastern time, we'll talk about what the news means for the obama and romney campaigns. our ges both served as chairman of the economic advisers. austan goolsbee and ed lazear under president obama. but first this morning's headlines. >>> you wanted music but you didn't pick this? >> no but it didn't bother me until you started mocking it. >> she want us just to talk, no music. >> let's get to spain and its finance ministe
of the economy, and if that stops jobs are going to stop, too and so is everything else. >> larry, i think those are very good points. i would argue most of the weakness we are seeing in the manufacturing side is a function of much weaker export s because of weakness in europe and asia. i think what we are seeing in the latest chicago data is a catchup with all the other weakness we had seen in earlier surveys. i think the economy is weak. it's not strong by any means but the labor market looks like it is growing. i don't think it will rollover from modest job growth. claims are ploe low and tax receipts are improving. >> 1 30i7b 3% depend we got earlier this weak. a lot of people would call ate growth recession. i want to ask is this stall-speed or an actual recession? >> i think we have slowed since the 1.3% second quarter number larry. we are seeing durable goods orders down in july and august. we are seeing the pmi is down. importantly, europe is moving in to a recession. germany is now in recession and china is not doing its stimulus. you have a coordinated global slow down starts now and i
now, we see an economy which is expanding. we see employment which is one of the key indicators of recession, still growing. so we expect the economy to continue to grow. that's our best forecast as of now. so we're not expecting a recession. that being said, with an economy growing only sort of 1.5% to 2%, that is not fast enough to lower the unemployment rate. that is my concern. >> all right. we have reaction now to that. and today's big gains in our "closing bell" exchange, plus we're talking strategies for the coming quarter. a quarter that has historically been good for the bulls. with us today, todd of black bay grou group. paul shots of heritage market. and our own rick santelli. paul, i'm going to start with you because you make a bold statement. you feel right now ben bernanke is irrelevant. what do you mean in. >> bill, i think the fed's done the most part, they've laid all their cards on the table. if you're playing poker, they're all in. it's qe unlimited. if $40 billion is not enough, they'll go to $50 billion, $60 billion, $100 billion. each qe has had less of an
overall economy, we've seen some positives in recent days. the ism services surprised on the up side today, 15 million car sales yesterday and of course stocks have been rising since a year ago today. the s&p is up 32%. so things can't be all that bad. how will the investor class vote in 34 days? but first up, both mitt romney and president obama are in their respective hotel rooms now. they're making final preparations for the big debate and cnbc's own john harwood joins us live with the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. two hours from that debate we've gotten a reminder in the last 24 hours with a slew of polls of how high the stakes are in this debate. we forget sometimes because we talk about how mitt romney is down in the race but he's still got a chance. only down 3 points nationally in the journal/nbc poll. in key swing points he's pulling even in florida, down 1, closer in virginia, down 2, he's still down by 8 percentage points in our poll in the state of ohio, which is a problem for this reason. look at the map of swing states. if you look at the ones where mit
the economy likely added 155,000 private payroll jobs this month. we'll bring you the number and get you instant reaction from joel prakken. in corporate news, richard schultz is pressing forward with a possible $11 billion buyout of the retailer. schultz and at least four private equity firms have reportedly started examining the books of the economy. at the same time, he is said to be negotiating individually with the pe firms on the details of how his roughly 20% stake in the company would contribute and what role he might be playing after a buyout. and oracle ceo larry ellison says the company won't be making any major acquisitions during the next couple years. in an interview on "closing bell" yesterday, ellison said he is instead focused on growing organically. he also discussed the dividend. >> that's the decision of the oracle board of directors. i believe we'll gradually increase the dividend as opposed to dublg it or tripling it all at once. nothing dramatic. >> shares of oracle during the last year, take a look at it. 31.65. he's gotten close to the top there, joe. >> all righ
. the economy is obviously a big part of this story. the qe announcement providing a shock to stock. we'll talk to charlie evans at 8:30 eastern time. and then it is your money, your vote. we'll start the countdown to the first presidential tee batd, that is on wednesday night. we'll be turning to a pair of political strategists in the next half hour for a preview. plus a cnbc exclusive, julia boars sten catching up with sheryl sandberg. including just how many people put everything about themselves online. >> does it scare that you you've helped create a generation of oversharers? >> i think what we give is people the ability to share what they want. what is one person's ridiculous oversharing is another person's regular day and we build technology that lets users share what they want to share and that's tremendously exciting. >> julia will join us with more of that conversation coming up at 7:30. and we'll find out why craig barrett is not a facebook fan. and in sports news, yes, europe has retained the ryder cup. staging a comeback after the u.s. began sunday with a big lead. europe has won
while consumer prices slipped further in august raising fears the world's third biggest economy could yet fall into recession by year end. >>> what a big day. >> super friday. >> we have the french budget proposal, the results of the spain audit/stress test, we've got, what else -- it's the end of the quarter. britain is announcing it libor reforms. >> that's not what i was talking about. it's the ryder cup, folks. forget all that stuff. >> by the way, i had to google the ryder cup. >> far more important event. >> we'll talk about that later in the program. >> i don't know who insisted on that, but apparently we are going to cover it. >> before we get to that, the government of hollande is about to present it first budget. its expected to whicheverdelives of tax hikes. meantime european policymakers are appraising spain's reform plan. but today the government must brace for the results of the banking stress tests that will determine the recapitalization needs of the country's most troubled lenders. we have steve sedgwick following the story in thmadrid, but firs out to stefane i
, what the u.s. economy is going to do because of other reasons. and i think the employment picture will improve to a certain extent going forward into next year as the housing situation in the united states begins to improve. but that is the causal mechanism there that i would be focusing on. i would not be focusing on the quantitative easing aspect on it. >> do you agree with larry fink who is suggesting we're only a year away from a much better housing market? >> much better, i don't know. i think there are enough signals that we can see right now the housing market is picking up. we are seeing a good contribution from construction probably for the first time and this is significant. we're seeing in the employment figures that there is on the construction side some positive moves. so on the whole, yes, i would agree we are maybe within a year perhaps. a bit more conservative, 18 months to two years time before of having a market that's at least respectable. >> we're also counting down to an election right now. you seem to view the prospect of a romney resurgence rather positive.
that i think have some unintended consequences that are harmful to the economy. one is it designates a number of banks as too big to fail and they're effectively guaranteed by the federal government. this is the biggest kiss that's been given to new york banks i've ever seen. >> i talked to one banking lobbyist here in town today. his reaction, he said folks were puzzled by that. even romney is beating up on the banks. one thing that unites democrats and republicans is beating up on the big banks. so, sue, here in washington, lobbyists for the banking industry watching that slightly askance. but i think there is a sense that a lot of this is political and doesn't necessarily imply how romney would necessarily govern as president of the united states. >> indeed. i think you are absolutely right. thank you. >>> so our poll question today -- do you think last night's debate will change the outcome of the campaign? vote by going to cnbc.com. the results are coming up a little later in "power lunch." >>> next though, seema mody joins us with a market flash. >> hi, sue. we're calling it th
. >>> consumer spending making up 70% of the u.s. economy, this holiday shopping season a key gauge on whether this sluggish economy can shift into a somewhat higher gear. new numbers out today from the world's largest retail trade association, the nrf, says u.s. retail sales should rise 4.1% this holiday season. pretty merry. don't get too excited. that is actually slower than the growth the past two years. so, why the slow down in the nrf says the biggest things holding consumers back is uncertainty over the economy and whether congress can strike what deal and avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. >>> one major retailer hoping for a merry holiday season is jc penney. ceo ron johnson continues to outline his plans for the struggling chain store. the stock down 30%. johnson speaking on the record and excuse swivel our courtney real been the state of his business. courtney? >> hi, tyler, good afternoon. jc penney ceo ron johnson has just begun speaking. the toirng the rocky road to reinventing retape. spoke with johnson exclusively before he took the stage at the event. now, 700 of the total 1100
work. but this is not one of those times. when the federal reserve talks about getting the economy moving by any means necessary it is really talking about getting more data like today's terrific ism number. given that the europeans and chinese are doing the same thing, if you're betting against the market you're fighting major central banks around the world that are doing their best to generate good data and sometimes their best is good enough. why does this overused cliche matter so much? ben bernanke said he's going to continue to buy bonds to keep interest rates down, so that this purchasing manager's number won't be an aberration. when you examine the fundamental of individual stocks, you are playing what's known as the micro. when you take into account the big data numbers like the purchasing manager's index, you're making a macro analysis. again though like the idea of fighting the fed this micro/macro dichotomy might mean nothing to you unless you took ec 101. let's put it in terms that everybody can understand. anyone who's been to a museum or taken an art class knows that
has obama leading romney 49-46. the economy is issue number one and whose plans are better for the middle class. to answer that we are holding our own debate right here on the kudlow report. we are joined by new jersey democratic congressman and jim gillmore to make the case for governor romney. there will be time to talk among your selves at my disgression. the first question is going to congressman big paskrel. 1.3% gdp 25 million people out of the workforce. mr. president, what is your solution to the prosperity and the recovery that continues to elude us? >> over the past 30 months we have had an increase in private sector jobs. but that is the direction we are going in. if you remember what happened before that, when the president raised his hand in january of 2009, we were losing 700 no,000 jobs a month. but the fact of the matter is we are going in the right direction now and we should keep doing that. the president supports the position on the creation of jobs and the government can't do everything but it has a responsibility. we have lost public sector jobs and we
that are all over the place and we don't understand really the direction this economy is going. when i look on the ground down here where i am in south florida, here in palm beach county we've got unemployment that's above 9.5%. knot to the north in martin county, almost 10%. into st. lucie county, it is 13%. i don't see these numbers that people are talking about and i don't understand how they can come back later in this month and say that they're revising the numbers from july and august, that they go back and do another survey. so i'm very questionable of what we do see coming out of this administration because the numbers don't add up. even on thursday we had an uptick of the first time unemployment jobs -- whatever you want to call it, the unemployment request on thursday. so something's inconsistent here and that's what i am questioning. >> this seems to me, frankly, congressman -- and i don't mean to be disrespectful, but this seems as curious in its way, these allegations, as the allegations of senator reid a couple of months ago who said based on sources he was not willing to name
and they can't do anything other than use the central government to force the economy to do x and y. and they're trying to get away from that. as they move away from it, that part of the economy clearly shows some struggles. >> short the aussie dollar, what, long the mexican peso? >> mexico is one of the big winners because they're deliberately raising wages. so low value added chinese manufacturing is nowhere near as competitive in the world as it once was. you see evidence of the u.s. getting some of it back. so mexico sort of had its breakfast, lunch and dinner the past 20 years by china appearing on the scene is probably in the early stages of regaining some of that a. so i think mexico is a big winner. southeast asia, philippines, for example. >> all right. jim, stick around. more to come from you. let's get over to asia and get a wrap of the day over there. >> thanks, ross. asian markets were mostly higher buoyed by improved data in u.s. and europe and also the rba rate cut. surprising move from the central bank helped the australian market end at a five month high. resources and banks
this is all an anomaly if you're bullish. and the economy has a little rough patch before it accelerates again. what happens if this is the rough patch that causes companies to slam on the brakes, ahead of what is no longer a fiscal cliff but a fiscal retaining wall. when you consider that the republicans are run by the tea party and democrats don't have to change, we have gone from thinking we can jump the fiscal cliff to thinking how can we slow business spending so that the collision won't destroy us? it's not just the u.s. that's a drag. china, there's a big hate on china right now. china is big hat. no. big mao cap no cattle. the worst downturn in two months is more representative of what's happening because there is no unity between the rich and poor nations. don't they show that there's no real hope for fiscal reform in that wounded country? today's action, i heard all day it's phony. me and many portfolio managers buy stocks and move them higher to the end of the quarter to get a little gain there. the conclusion, if this were monday coming up, a new month, a new quarter, you would see
a red flag for the economy. we'll talk more about the transports and what they're telling us at 6:40. we'll also focus on the economy with the man who is charged with officially calling recessions and the end of those recessions. james poterba will be here at 7:30. and our corporate story of the morning, smartphones and mobile devices. apple launches the new iphone 5 in 22 more countries today and this comes after blackberry posted better than expected quarterly results after the bell last night. still, it is an uphill climb for this company. we'll be talking to research in motion ceo. and plus we will welcome today's political news maker, senator rand paul, one of the nation's best known tea party members. and by the way, in case you went to sleep early last night, the official nfl refs were back on the field. get this, they got a standing ovation as they took the field. the ravens beating the browns 23-16. we will have more on the game and on what's happening in sports at 6:20 eastern time. first andrew has the morning's top business headlines. >>> on the global markets agenda, results
, to the extent that there's been any economy growth at all, it's been -- whatever we have had has been completely funded -- remember what obama said, i'm going to build a new foundation. it's built on easy money and borrowing. >> the only argument, the only argument that romney and the republicans have is look how terrible things are, they're the america lose crowd. >> that's their only argument. >> so guess what, bright signs in the market you indicated today. bright signs in manufacturing. it couldn't possibly be because of good public policy. >> you realize this year's worse than last year, right? >> i know you're an obama insider. >> no, i'm an outsider. >> does president obama understand the federal reserve? the reason i ask is does he know what bernanke's doing? the reason i ask this is that most people only recognize a third to a half of the intelligence reports. >> he's too good for that. most people have reported that he's only gotten and he got it online through his ipad. do you think he understands, do you really think he understands what's going on in the federal reserve? >> i do. any
're finding things to do on the consumer side. i would tell you, i do think the chinese economy in particular, the export economy, is structurally broken. i think that's a big change. i've been going to china since 1995. i think there's a fundamental shift in what's going on. we saw that in the caterpillar numbers. you saw that in the federal express numbers. some people think that's cyclical. i think there's prob a m secular component to it. >> this is a very important point you're making because china's growth has been driven by the export economy. you're saying that it's in trouble, it's broken. >> i'm not saying it's broken. i'm saying there's a transition going on towards consumption exporting to europe and real estate are no longer going to be their drivers nap will probably create more volatility than we've had in the past. >> how easy is it to expect this transition? you're buying in the consumer space. >> yes, and you have the transition of the government. one of the other big messages we picked up over there, particularly in i understondia, emerging market central banks, they're ver
to change the mood. business confidence in the world's third biggest economy continues to take a hit. sentiment fell in the july to september quarter. this according to the central bank's survey. falling output and exports have taken a toll along with rising worries over strained relations with china. the one bright spot, the mood in the service sector which remains much higher. japan also has a new finance chief after noda reshuffled his cabinet. largely expected to stick to the reform plan. in all ten new faces were brought into the cabinet including the economics minister and he's been urging the bank of japan to take more action, as well, on the economy. ed rogers is ceo of rogers investment advisers and he joins us now. ed, was that one bright spot in the tank enough? >> good morning, ross. i think actually there were two bright spots. cap ex- is expected to rise at much higher rate than previously expected. those are good things. the fact that in the short term we have a bit of a down tick in enthusiasm and a lot of that could well be placed at the doorstep of the china and jap
to worry about a slowdown in the global economy, it is, man, that's a scary-looking chart. i will try to get it for you. >> do you think that's because of europe -- >> i think some of it's europe. i think japan to china. terrible job out there. >> because we know that honda had auto sales in our country. toyota, but they make them here. >> want to go to bob pisani. fleet matiches is an ipo and it will be pricing higher and you're in the crowd right now. >> it's always nice to see this. look. >> here's employees of fleet manics and they did fleet management and they priced last night at $17. 21 to 23 are the indications and my point is all of these people are employees of the company and jim travers is right over there and he's the ceo and he'll be on with us for a little while and they're all waiting for him to make the first trade. the ceo makes the first trade and it's 100 shares and they come over and they talk to us and that's the way it's done these days. we'll talk about it later and get more information and that will open to the upside. this morning, folks, it's all about polit
are in health care. that'll be 20% of the economy. and technology. those two are very, very strong. on the other end of the spectrum is financial services where there's just a heavy state of paralysis today. >> what about wall street sector? i understand the younger people are no longer seeking to work there. is that because the salaries have come down so far? >> well, they've seen what happened over the last four years. everything is being re-regulated. the real issue today is everything is just in time. it's just in time for spain. it's just in time for the fiscal cliff. you know, ceos can read balance sheets. in america, for every $3, we're spending $4. that's just not sustainable. people want to see the plan from here to there. that's really the big issue here. >> is the fiscal cliff. 69% are waiting for the fiscal cliff and european stability issues to be resolved. we could be waiting a very long time for those things, right? >> well, that's why i say this is a decade of readjustment. this is the new normal. >> i was hoping you meant the last decade, not the coming decade. >> we've already
the world in a slowing global economy are going to open up. we'll see where it all plays out, whether all current cities are suddenly represented in oil and gold, suddenly gold and oil are so high that any gains that you get in your market averages are -- >> and yet crude oil back at -- >> 92, yeah. expressed in either euros or dollar, it's expensive. the ten year note which we know is just able to trade wherever it wants and not being influenced at all by the fed, just at a 1.63%. look at the dollar which has been around 1.28 versus the euro. 1.29 today. and then gold was at a session high, i think it was at a euro all-time high yesterday. down a little bit today. >> right now time for the global markets report. ross westgate is standing by. while you -- >> two days now? >> guess who we get onset with us. >> mr. poulter. that's fantastic. and is that the first interview he's done outside of the event? >> he may have just talked after the event, i guess, and i know he had a few guinnesss after the event. i saw a few pictures yesterday. but he had those same eyes. eyes scare me a little bi
of the executive suite and of course the economy and business in america as well as globally. we're going to talk with him at 4:30 p.m. eastern. before that, we have some heavy hitters coming up, including the former yahoo! ceo and the coca-cola ceo. all of a that coming up in the program. meanwhile, let's get back to the markets. we have a double-digit decline. in fact, it looks like the dow is on track to close lower for the sixth time in eight trading sessions. the dow jones industrial average now at 13,436, a decline of about 0.5%. if we close lower today that, would be the sixth decline in the last eight trading sessions. a bit of worry about earnings on the trading horizon, as we are expected expecting the stream of earnings to take effect. weakness in apple today. it is about 5% of the s&p 500 and 20% of the nasdaq. so as apple goes, so goes the market. that's what we're seeing once again today. s&p 500 down about five points. that's 1/3 of 1%. with markets in the red, let's look at what this says about where we are in business today. joining me in today's "closing bell" exchange, we have
. are the fed's actions going to have much impact on the economy, and what about the jobs picture right now? >> okay, first you got to recognize the head winds the fed is working against. economic growth is slowing because of uncertainties surrounding the fiscal cliff. analysts were overoptimistic about earnings, and that reality is sinking in. and the world is a risky place. so there's reasons investors lack conviction. with regard to jobs, we've heard the adp number before. i think it's kind of getting old. so i don't take much from the fact that markets didn't respond to the adp report. i think we'll get a solid number, 125-k. >> historically, still a very small number though, right? >> sure. it's one in which we're not making material progress in reducing unemployment, and it's not one the fed will be satisfied with. they told us they're setting a much higher bar for employment gains. >> let's talk about hp here, jeff. a sharp decline in the stock. one of the reasons that the dow industrial is really -- can't break out here in any way. you have a fair amount of winners there. hewlett pa
of taxes paid by high income people. high income people are doing just fine in this economy. they'll do fine whether you're president or i am. the people having the hard time are middle income americans. under the president's policy, middle income americans have been buried. they're being crushed. >> for 18 months he's been running on this tax plan. and now five weeks before the election he's saying that his big bold idea is never mind. and the fact is that if you are lowering the rates the way you describe, governor, then it is not possible to come up with enough deductions and loopholes that only affect high income individuals to avoid either raising the definite it or burdeneni ing the middle class. it's hamath. >> another hot topic, the deficit. >> it's now four years later, we still have trillion dollar defici deficits. >> $2.50 for every cut, we ask for a dollar of additional revenue paid for as i indicated earlier by asking those of us who have done very well in this country to contribute a little bit more to reduce the deficit. >> there were also some notable exchanges about job
the it should go down game. >> what if you're making a call on the real economy, x market. what would you be saying about the u.s. fortunes into q4? >> i still await a negative retail story that i don't have. china -- can china remain bad forever? that's a difficult question to see how long it can remain bad. >> good point. stuff on housing is good. the lead story in "the journal" today, trade slowing. slowing pmis in japan, china, europe -- >> how is this news? what news was there in that story about trade is slow? were they really that devoid of anything new? that's like, d.a. probes rackets. come on! >> meanwhile, busy week for new companies. one of the busiest weeks for ipos since july. and i think september, i just saw these numbers, the best september since '99. eight deals, $5.5 billion, best actual month since may. >> david bust ser coming back. my daughter was able to beat -- there's a claw that comes down -- my daughter got five straight. i'm glad dave & buster is coming back. >> anything worth anything? >> not more than two cents. >> and it costs 50 cents to play? >> i've dropp
. the feds attempt to jump start the economy by any means necessary. think about how the people might have sold in october last year. why doesn't this calendar style of investing interest me to make money? simple. every year there is a way to make money. let me give you examples of why this is a lazy force that is nothing but a lovy blanket. first, when these numbers or patterns were created, the u.s. was in control of its own destiny. our fings ago system is connected with theirs. do you think any of the historical data takes on that shift that we have to deal with? no, do you think i would be ringing a gong five years ago? i think this is kind of a recent event you know. gong show. i cannot recall another time when the federal reserve is taking the step to lower the -- if the economy gets better. that means you have to lower stocks. history shows it has to be one. of course it didn't pay to sell those stocks in september. september is the worst month for investing. third, there is apple. we've never had a $600 billion stock before. we've never had a stock that is so much bigger. if i cou
to be the worst month of the year historically. we know the global economy is weakening. everybody came on our air saying hey. short the global economy. this did not turn out to be such a good theory did it? right now, 2.9% for one of the best months of the year. not the best month but among the better months of the year. what were the two biggest gains we had this month? the two biggest days? september 6th? that was the day draghi announced the bond buying program. biggest gain. second biggest gain september 13th the day of the fomc meeting. what does this tell us? it tells us what matters in the world is central bank intervention and also what's going on in europe. what was the worst day this year? it was tuesday, the day we saw the riots in madrid because that's the day everybody said uh-oh. this whole deal with spain and this careful choreography moving toward help from the eu could fall apart. turns out maybe it's holding together a little better than anticipated. my point is what moves the world is central bank intervention and what's going on in europe. to play against that is very, very da
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, but of course tomorrow's september jobs report will off more clues about the health of the economy. we're going to get some thoughts about what to expect out of the jobs numbers and from this rally. >> everybody is on board. steve, how about some of the hits, runs, and errors from those feds minutes? it didn't move the markets to any great degree today. >> i think we knew where people stood. the voting members are more or less in favor of the policy that came out, which was the one, the open-ended quantitative easing. the non-voters, there are more objections there. that's where more of the hawks are in the current rotation of the fomc. i don't think we learned anything new about there being a bigger or wider split when it comes to the new policy out there. they do have work to do, guys. they're working on the calendar date guidance. they're working on a whole bunch of other stuff that's out there. for example, the fomc individual interest rate forecast, and i think the way maria led into this, that we need new information, that's absolutely true because we don't know what happens in january. i
's not the way. it's all small ball stuff that. worked for bill clinton because bill clinton had a raring economy so he could worry about school uniforms and talk about small stuff. where is i the president's big plan? >> where's mitt romney's small plan? >> you heard it last night. he has an entitlement reform plan, tax plan, corporate tax plan, energy plan, trade plan. the president doesn't. and i think it really showed. he imagined he was going to get through this race simply by disqualifying romney. they almost did it during the summer. they came this close. >> hold on a second. >> i want to ask you something. the whole debate last night was obama saying no to romney's agenda. we all learned romney's agenda. nobody learned obama's agenda. now he's going back to negativism. this is a huge mistake. let me tell you something else romney did to get reaction. your man obama is going to have so much trouble. romney said to 68 million viewers, i can make a deal. i can go across the aisle like i did in massachusetts. in fact he even said about his tax reform plan, if you don't like the specific versi
. we all know the economy isn't recovering as fast as it could. in the end, you're getting paid 1,000 basis points in equity risk premiums. that's what you make over the risk-free rate to invest in stocks. i think in the end investors look at bonds and cash and say, what are they going to do for me and my retirement? they're not going to do anything. stocks are the only thing that can deliver those kind of returns. i think in the end the market grinds higher. in the end, there's way too many people who see all the clouds on the horizon and reasons for not investing. i think in the end the market hurts the most people the most often, and most of them are on the sideline. >> that's what we've seen throughout the year. all the skeptics who insist the fundamental don't match what the market is doing. >> it never does. >> are we going to see some kind of correction in october, adam? >> i think we will see a correction. however, i want to distinguish the equity markets across the globe. for example, we hear about negative news in europe and parts of asia. if you dig a little deeper, you
had expected. that suggests the economy may not be so hot, right? >> set the stage. we just downgrade the second quarter. we went from 1.7 to 1.3. we talked about that yesterday. >> this i consistent with that. >> exactly. we thought third quarter might have a two handle on it. we're taking that two handle off. before i came on goldman sachs has a report saying they're looking at 1.9. i see some over 1.8, 1.7. slow mediocre growth continues. i think the key being, can we resolve the issues that have hung over the american economy from spain? >> is madrid more important than chicago? >> at least it is today. we wanted to see what the needs would be for the spanish banks. the numbers that they put out today after this exhaustive examination. >> do you breath numbers? >> the market believes them now. they came about in line with expectations. the number could change depending on what happens with the spanish economy and if real estate prices fall even further. you think more of this like a tradeoff. if the capital requirements had been even bigger it would have meant they were going to c
us his assessment of the global economy. faber will have a live interview. >>> plus, inside the metropcs deal. was it the right call? and lifelock's first debut. the ceo is all on tap. >> announcer: today, fourth quarter investment strategies. quarter investment strategies. henry mo, not a migraine now. try this... bayer? this isn't just a headache. trust me, this is new bayer migraine. [ male announcer ] it's the power of aspirin plus more in a triple action formula to relieve your tough migraines. new bayer migraine formula. like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. >>> all right. welcome back to "squawk on the street." the opening bell is set to ring in a minute's time. big day sha
and the economy. the debate last night, a lot of data today and tomorrow including the jobs number. and the opening bell. the s&p 500 at the top of your screen over the big board, steelcase, maker of business furniture. you might be sitting on some right now, celebrating its 100th anniversary over at the nasdaq. net element international, a mobile commerce and payment processing company celebrating its ipo today. and jim, there have been several of those, although, as we saw from lifelock, not all of them going the way the companies had wished. >> no, it's interesting, this company that's becoming public, it is a terrific household name. they make a lot of plastics that we all use, hard plastics is really their major initiative. plastic uses a lot of natural gas, which means that the margins should be going up. nobody cares. >> yeah, it priced below the range. bery is the ticker. it debuts here on the stock exchange. meantime, hewlett-packard, hitting another new low, down 1.5%. we didn't get a chance to really dissect ms. whitman's interview. what did you think? >> 320,000 employe
at the democratic convention about how president obama's done as well as anyone could do in turning the economy around the last four years. secondly, he's got to make a positive case with passion, with credibility for his own economic plans, for how he's going to make life better for 100% of americans. third, he's going to have to deal with that 47% video which has really taken a toll on his campaign. he's got to do all those things at the same time. we've seen the history of debates, tyler. it is not easy to fundamentally turn a race around but we have seen from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll that he's within three points nationally. still possible for him to win. got get going down. >> amman, there is some buzz about a plan that romney hs apparently floated for basically a $17,000 cap on tax deductions for americans. explain it. you've crunched the number. what's the headline here? >> tyler, the headline here is that the romney campaign e-mailed me this morning on this. they say they want to make very clear this is not a specific proposal from governor romney, that he's just floating one
in the market don't seem to reflect the declines in the economy. there's sort of a disconnect. i think you agree with that, don't you? >> i absolutely agree with you, bill. i think all of september the market has been moved, not by what's going on here in the united states, but what's been going on in europe, which says to me two things. one, any bad news out of europe is going to send the market down. two, eventually people are going to have to pay attention to what's going on in the united states. i'm expecting we're heading into earnings season, i'm expecting anemic growth, and eventually that's going to have to play into the situation here. i mean, i know you don't fight the fed, but eventually we have to come back to what's going on in terms of fundamentals and stop focusing on monetary policy. >> what do you think? are we going to focus on fundamentals? if you are, kurt, would you be a seller of this market? >> we are focused in on fundamentals. i think this has been a tug of war between the reflationists and some of the risk that's been perceived in the market. we're not investing in gdp.
of confidence in the economy. everybody's saying, yeah, things feel better, but it's not perfect yet. >> also, there's no urgency. the fed is telling us rates are going to stay at rock bottom until 2015. i don't have to rush into the market now. >> that and the fact your house is worth now what it was in 2004 before the few years of psycho fraud happened. people aren't saying buy, buy, buy because this is a super investment and it's going to go up 10% a year. yeah, people are waiting for the right house. there's people i've had as buyers who have waited a year to find the right house. yeah, they paid a little more for it, but it was worth the wait. people are picky too. >> diana, there's just no urgency. >> no urgency. i was just talking to an investor today. he was talking about this fundamental shift in attitudes toward homeownership. it's just not what it used to be. a lot of potential buyers out there are saying i can rent a single family home and even though, you know, home sale prices are lower and affordability is supposedly better, i don't have to deal with a mortgage. i don't have to
'm equipped for because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. massmutual. we'll help you get there. for over 60,000 california foster children, extra curricular activities help provide a sense of identity and a path to success. joining the soccer team. getting help with math. going to prom. i want to learn to swim. it's hard to feel normal, when you can't do the normal things. to help, sleep train is collecting donations for the extra activities that, for most kids, are a normal part of growing up. not everyone can be a foster parent... but anyone can help a foster child. >>> i'm always talking breakup place here at "mad money." companies that can create value for their shareholders by splitting themselves up. i wanted to check in on the product of one of last year's big breakups, itt-xls. investors in the industry applauded the itt breakup. the stock popped 17% on the
of stocks in the firmament. the economy is so darn lousy, we don't have much longer -- at the same time the fed wants interest rates down so the economy can hopefully catch fire. we all know from the boss, bruce springsteen, you can't start a fire without a spark. unfortunately, those low rates mean you can't earn squat on bonds either. like it or not, you need to own stocks that can give you a decent return. the unemployed have a hard time saving, no kidding, the fact is that 90 million american households save with stocks in one form or another. it makes a ton of sense when you think about it. how do we get sustainable higher stock prices? let me give you my eight-point plan. point number one, we have to eliminate the tax on dividends entirely. if they're tax-free, people will buy them. i trust the balance sheets of corporate america far more than i trust the government's balance sheet. this is hardly a reckless position and would encourage companies to reward shareholders by issuing and raising dividends. i would actually raise the tax on capital gains. why? you get gains when you se
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